Research

Forthcoming Research on Agent-Based Economic Innovation and Autonomous Market Dynamics

Forthcoming research programme examining the economics of digital transformation and green innovation — including firm-level efficiency impacts, sustainability-driven market…

1 August 2026

Agentic Innovation Economics: Research Programme

2 min

Forthcoming Research on the Economics of AI Inference, Compute Costs, and Value Distribution

Forthcoming research programme on agent-based economic innovation — examining how autonomous AI agents reshape innovation ecosystems, market dynamics, firm boundaries, and…

1 July 2026

Inference Economics in the AI Era: Research Programme

1 min

Forthcoming research programme investigating the economic structure of AI inference markets — including compute pricing, inference-as-a-service dynamics, marginal cost…

1 June 2026

Comparative Effectiveness Analysis of Firms’ External Validation and Market Signaling Strategies in Europe, Central Asia and MENA Markets

50 min

In the information-asymmetric and institutionally heterogeneous markets of Europe and Central Asia (ECA) and the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), firms face strategic…

5 May 2026

Governance Architecture and Political Embeddedness as Strategic Orientations: Firm-Level Evidence from Europe, Central Asia and MENA Markets

48 min

Formal governance structures and political embeddedness represent two foundational but analytically distinct dimensions of firm strategy in institutionally complex…

5 May 2026

The Inference Economy: Token Consumption, Software Productivity, and Jevons Paradox Dynamics in Artificial Intelligence

34 min

Proposes and validates three novel economic relationships: the Token Production Function, the Token Kuznets Curve, and the Jevons Paradox of AI Tokens. Using a calibrated…

4 May 2026

Tokens as Technology: AI Inference, Labor Augmentation, and Long-Run Software Productivity Growth

33 min

Develops a macroeconomic growth theory in which AI inference tokens enter the software production function as a Harrod-neutral labor-augmenting technology. Treating the AI…

2 May 2026

Agentic Innovation Economics: Autonomous AI Agents and the Future of Endogenous Technological Change

46 min

This paper introduces Agentic Innovation Economics (AIE), a formal theoretical framework that extends classical endogenous growth theory to accommodate the emergence of…

26 April 2026

A Complete Formal Endogenous Growth Model with Autonomous AI Innovation Agents: Theory, Equilibrium, and Simulation

47 min

We develop a complete formal endogenous growth model in which autonomous artificial intelligence (AI) agents function as independent innovators alongside human researchers…

26 April 2026

Trading in Digital Financial Markets: A Microeconometric Analysis of Retail Investment Demand in the United Arab Emirates

48 min

This paper develops and estimates a micro-founded trading demand function for retail investors in the United Arab Emirates using a synthetic dataset of 10,000 digitally…

22 April 2026

Comparative Saving Strategy Effectiveness Analysis in the Global Economy: A Multidimensional Dominance Approach Using the Saving Strategy Index from the 2025 Global Findex Database

48 min

In the rapidly transforming financial landscapes of the global economy, individuals strategically combine formal bank accounts, mobile money, and informal savings clubs to…

22 April 2026

Unveiling Innovation Interdependence in Emerging Economies: A Bivariate Copula Analysis of Open and Closed Strategies in ECA and MENA

32 min

Examines the joint determinants of product/service and process innovation among 9,710 private firms across 41 ECA and MENA economies using a bivariate copula model. The Joe…

12 April 2026

Application of Advanced Statistical Process Control Methodologies to Regional Consumption Process Monitoring: Evidence from the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) Bloc

79 min

Pioneers the application of statistical process control to regional economic phenomena. Using EHCVM household survey data (2018/2019 and 2021/2022) from WAEMU’s 103…

Financial Inclusion Effects on Firms’ Quality Certification and Sales Performance

34 min

Examines how formal financial inclusion, digital strategies, and international quality certification jointly influence firm sales performance using data from 96,952 firms…

Formal Financial Inclusion and Firms’ Access to Operational Credit Facilities in the Open Banking Era

29 min

Investigates how formal financial inclusion (FFI) influences firms’ access to operational credit—specifically overdrafts and credit lines—in the open banking era. Using…

Digital and Financial Inclusion in Burkina Faso: Impacts on Household Welfare and the Mediating Role of the COVID-19 Pandemic

38 min

Examines how mobile phone ownership, internet access, and bank account possession influence household food and non-food consumption expenditures in Burkina Faso using EHCVM…

Open Banking Maturity, Financial Inclusion, and Firm Productivity: Global Evidence from Enterprise Surveys

32 min

Explores how national Open Banking maturity and firm-level financial inclusion jointly influence credit access (overdraft facilities and loans/credit lines) and labor…

Extensive and Intensive R&D Investments and Firm Output and Process Innovations in High-Income Countries: The Role of Financial Access

30 min

Using 2024 World Bank Enterprise Survey microdata from 8,422 firms across the USA, UK, Canada, China, and South Korea, a copula-based trivariate probit model jointly…

Production-Theoretic Framework for LLM Inference Efficiency with Empirical Evidence from a 52-Institution SupTech Deployment

Joint Scope–Scale Efficiency in Token Consumption under Parallelised Inference: Theory and Empirical Evidence from Large Language Model Systems

39 min

An Experimental Analysis with Sensitivity Tests

Introduces a production-theoretic framework proving that model capacity and task scope are complements in LLM inference efficiency (Joint Scope–Scale Efficiency Theorem).…

8 April 2026

The Transformative Role of Model Context Protocol (MCP) in the AI-Driven API Economy

33 min

A quasi-experimental difference-in-differences study on 10,000 simulated firms showing that MCP adoption reduces integration costs by 29.77–32.38%, increases API call volume…

8 April 2026

Developing the Innovation Orientation Index: Empirical Insights from Firm-Level Data in the ECA and MENA Regions

15 min

Causal Evidence and a Proposed Institutional Intelligence Platform for UAE HEIs

Introduces the Innovation Orientation Index (IOI), a composite metric integrating Open Knowledge Innovation, Open R&D Innovation, and Closed R&D Innovation into an…

7 April 2026

The Digital Imperative in Outcomes-Based Quality Assurance: Causal Evidence and a Proposed Institutional Intelligence Platform for UAE HEIs

23 min

OBEF related Research

Employs a mixed-methods design — qualitative policy analysis and a synthetic panel DiD simulation of 76 UAE HEIs — to quantify the causal impact of digital platform adoption…

3 April 2026

Regulation-Induced Innovation in Higher Education: The UAE’s Edu-RegTech Market under the Outcome-Based Evaluation Framework

A Formal Model and Monte Carlo Simulation of Edu-RegTech Market Emergence

23 min

OBEF related Research

Analyses how the UAE Outcome-Based Evaluation Framework induces a new Edu-RegTech market. A formal economic model and Monte Carlo simulation across ~100 UAE HEIs shows…

2 April 2026

Digital Fair Trade Platforms for Supervision and Regulatory Compliance in Higher Education: A Cross-Border Development Finance Model

Theoretical Foundations, Mechanism Design, and a Monte Carlo Calibration for the UAE Outcomes-Based Framework

31 min

OBEF related Research

A formal platform-economics model of a Digital Fair Trade Platform for UAE Higher Education Regulation (DFT-HER), integrating mechanism design and Monte Carlo calibration…

1 April 2026

The Impact of Artificial Intelligence on Fresh Graduate Labor Demand: A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis with Industry and Firm Heterogeneity

CES Production Function, Monte Carlo Simulation, and Policy Analysis of AI’s Dual Role in Graduate Labour Markets

34 min

DEA-Tobit Analysis of 748 Philippine Firms from the 2024 World Bank Enterprise Survey

A peer-reviewed IEEE conference paper modelling AI’s dual role — substitution and complementarity — in fresh graduate labour demand using a CES production framework, Monte…

30 March 2026

Green Technology Innovation and Firm-Level Technical Efficiency: A Two-Stage Analysis in the Philippines

51 min

Bivariate Gumbel Copula Regression Evidence from 121,429 Firms across 148 Economies (World Bank Enterprise Survey, 2006–2021)

A peer-reviewed IEEE conference paper applying two-stage DEA-Tobit analysis to 748 Philippine firms (WBES 2024 Green Economy module). Finds that green technology innovation…

30 March 2026

Evaluating the Influence of Digital Strategy on the Interplay between Quality Certification and Sales Performance Using Data Science and Machine Learning Algorithms

31 min